Aside from the platinum scarcity, other factors influencing demand include
- Gold Safe Exchange
- Oct 17, 2022
- 3 min read
Platinum demand has been falling in recent years, which is to be expected given the state of the global economy. Automotive production and the jewelry industry are both feeling the effects of the current shortage. The recent economic downturn has hit these two industries particularly hard and is only expected to get worse as investment in Southern Africa slows. One reason for the shortage is that not enough jewelry is being made, but there are also other things that affect the market for the precious metal.
China's limited ability to export platinum makes its stockpile a key problem for the global platinum market. This would have the effect of decreasing the available supply of the precious metal worldwide, driving up its price. One thing to keep in mind is that China does import platinum.
Recent years have seen a steady rise in the disparity between the country's net imports of platinum and its discernible demand for the metal. This indicates the country is likely amassing platinum for use in the production of hydrogen fuel. The supply of platinum on the market is too high, but a big rise in demand could fix this.
The first half of 2018 saw a 40 percent increase in China's imports of platinum compared to the same period of 2017. This number was higher than the long-term average. Meanwhile, in the first half of the year, China reportedly imported 1.44 million ounces of platinum, with an additional 645,000 ounces going unrecorded. It's possible that price drops and limits on travel contributed to this.
Platinum demand is being pushed upward in large part by palladium scarcity. Catalytic converters are crucial to lowering emissions, but they traditionally use palladium. More and more car companies are switching to other materials. However, the cost of palladium is several times that of platinum. An increase in Chinese platinum imports last year can be attributed in part to this substitution. This may be associated with heavier truck loads.
Russia now produces 30–40% of the world's supply of palladium, an industrial metal used mostly in autocatalysts. While this would normally increase worldwide supply, the crisis in Ukraine has the potential to stifle demand in the West. It's possible that palladium supplies will decrease if the price of oil rises and the globe transitions to alternative energy sources.
Also, platinum is being considered as a palladium substitute by manufacturers for use in vehicle catalysts. The 2016 palladium shortage kicked off the start of this pattern. Once annual savings surpassed the cost of testing, however, it accelerated. By 2024, fabricators predict that global demand for platinum will be between 150 koz and 1.5 moz. The alternative could be used by the auto industry.
It is expected that the operational disruption caused by COVID-19 will have a substantial influence on the world platinum supply, especially in the second half of 2020. Production of platinum is predicted to drop by about 5.549 koz as a result of the pandemic. South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe are the world's top producers of platinum. Still, the 41 projects in development will help the worldwide market recover from the effects of COVID-19 and contribute to sustained growth from 2020 to 2024. Platinum group metals are used in many products made by the metals industry, such as autocatalysts.
Distributed illness caused by the COVID-19 virus has wreaked havoc on worldwide supply networks. Indeed, the mining industry was not immune to the pandemic's widespread effects. Due to the instability of the world economy, steps have been taken to strengthen the mining industry, limit the power of strategic rivals, and make sure there are enough essential metals.
There are repercussions for more than just the platinum trade due to the shortage of semiconductor chips. There has been a global component shortage and fluctuating pricing for semiconductors since February due to a lack of the raw materials needed to make them. Many companies had to close, supplies ran out, and billions of dollars were wasted as a result of the semiconductor crisis, which affected 169 different industries, including the automotive and consumer electronics sectors.
Increased demand for personal electronics and production disruptions due to COVID have contributed to a worldwide semiconductor shortage. As a result of the scarcity, automakers have had to halt manufacturing lines and cut back on extras in order to reduce their vehicles' semiconductor needs. Platinum and palladium output have been hit especially hard in Asia and North America due to this issue. But there are a few ways to help with the current chip scarcity.
Global light-vehicle production will fall as a result of the shortage of semiconductor chips. The need for platinum and palladium will go down as a result of this. Almost one-third of the platinum used today goes toward automobiles. As of now, we can expect the scarcity to continue through 2021, and even into 2022 and 2023.
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